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Foreign Policy Binary

Status Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Apr 20, 2026, 10:00 AM - Apr 27, 2026, 08:35 AM
Yes 7.5% · -2.6%
No 92.6% · +2.6%
4% 27% 50% 73% 96%
Apr 20Apr 23Apr 27
1H6H1D1WMAX
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Market Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes 7.5%
No 92.6%
End time Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM