Politics
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
J.D. Vance
39.2%
Marco Rubio
20.9%
World Elections
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gavin Newsom
25.7%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8.5%
World Elections
West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
AITC
58.6%
BJP
41.3%
Politics
Colombia Presidential Election
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Iván Cepeda Castro
40.5%
Paloma Valencia
31.6%
Elections
California Governor Election Winner
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Tom Steyer
46.4%
Xavier Becerra
20.8%
Politics
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Naftali Bennett
44.5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
40.5%
Elections
Iowa Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?
Rob Sand
97.4%
Julie Stauch
1.3%
Foreign Policy
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Binary
Yes
7.5%
No
92.6%
Politics
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Chong Won-oh
88%
Oh Se-hoon
9.5%
Trump Presidency
Will Trump visit China by...?
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
June 30
84%
May 31
76.5%
Trump-Machado
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
54%
Delcy Rodríguez
34.5%
Culture
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
December 31
19.5%
September 30
14.5%
World
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Iván Cepeda Castro
91.5%
Abelardo de la Espriella
6.1%
Geopolitics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Binary
Yes
33.5%
No
66.5%
Pierre
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Binary
Yes
24.5%
No
75.5%
Politics
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Binary
Yes
20.5%
No
79.5%
Politics
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Democrats Sweep
49.5%
R Senate, D House
37.5%
Politics
Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
Victor Marx
54%
Barbara Kirkmeyer
25.5%
Primaries
Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner
Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
Tom Tiffany
89%
Tommy Thompson
2.2%
US Election
Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
14.5%
December 31, 2025
0%
Geopolitics
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Binary
Yes
6%
No
94%
Politics
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
December 31
11.8%
June 30
3.1%
Politics
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Binary
Yes
13.5%
No
86.5%
South Korea
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Term: Keyword
Yes
8.7%
No
91.4%
Mamdani
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
Binary
Yes
14.5%
No
85.5%
Politics
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?
40–43
41.3%
36–39
26.9%
US Election
New York Governor Election Winner
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Democrat
91.5%
Republican
8.5%
Politics
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
June 30
96.4%
May 31
86%
Awards
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Yulia Navalnaya
9.5%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
8%
World
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
World · Live market
Team A
25.5%
Live market · World
Team B
74.5%
Politics
Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?
Cyndi Munson
84.5%
Constance N. Johnson
9.5%
World
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Binary
Yes
6.5%
No
93.5%
World
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
Binary
Yes
4.1%
No
95.9%
Politics
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Binary
Yes
13.5%
No
86.5%
Elections
Trump out as President before 2027?
Binary
Yes
16.5%
No
83.5%
Elections
NH-01 Republican Primary Winner
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Anthony DiLorenzo
47%
Hollie Noveletsky
38.5%