Business
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
40.9%
1 (25 bps)
28.5%
Business
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Binary
Yes
39%
No
61%
Business
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Binary
Yes
21%
No
79%
Economy
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
NVIDIA
77%
Alphabet
10.5%
IPOs
IPOs before 2027?
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
Cerebras
96.7%
SpaceX
95.3%
Tech
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
Cursor
77%
Caesars Entertainment
74%
Politics
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
Binary
Yes
20.5%
No
79.5%
Macro Indicators
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
2.0–2.5%
24.3%
1.5–2.0%
20.5%
Tech
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
Binary
Yes
25%
No
75%
Tech
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OpenAI
38.5%
xAI
15.5%
Finance
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
9.5%
June 30, 2026
2.6%